Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2157 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 2157 · IAH → SLC

departs 8:25 PM CT · arrives 10:43 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±6 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.31 in

SLC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2157 · IAH → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?