UA 2186 · SNA → EWR

departs 9:15 PM PT · arrives 5:33 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 9pm departures from SNA are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,583 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2186 · SNA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?