UA 2188 · EWR → RSW

took off 7:11 PM ET · landed 9:43 PM ET (scheduled 6:59 PM ET → 10:06 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RSW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

RSW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2188 · EWR → RSW

Odds over time

How late did it get to RSW?