UA 2197 · IAH → ORD

departs 6:44 PM CT · arrives 9:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2197 · IAH → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?