UA 2198 · IAH → SAT

departs 9:42 PM CT · arrives 10:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

SAT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2198 · IAH → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?