Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2215 LANDED 10:02 AM ET, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

UA 2215 · DFW → EWR

took off 6:19 AM CT · landed 10:02 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

EWR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2215 · DFW → EWR

Odds over time