Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2262 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 2262 · RDM → SFO

departs 1:49 PM PT · arrives 3:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDM (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2262 · RDM → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?