UA 2305 · SFO → IAH

departs 4:40 PM PT · arrives 10:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2305 · SFO → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?