UA 2317 · ORD → MEM

departs 9:20 PM CT · arrives 11:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2317 · ORD → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?