Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2340 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 2340 · SBA → SFO

departs 6:15 AM PT · arrives 7:25 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SBA are usually not late

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2340 · SBA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?