Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2406 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 2406 · IAH → LAS

departs 6:39 PM CT · arrives 7:57 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±7 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

LAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2406 · IAH → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?