Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2430 LANDED 11:47 AM CT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

UA 2430 · DEN → ORD

took off 8:58 AM MT · landed 11:47 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2430 · DEN → ORD

Odds over time