UA 2432 · SFO → AUS

took off 11:21 AM PT · expected to land 4:21 PM CT (scheduled 10:57 AM PT → 4:38 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2432 · SFO → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?