Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2439 LANDED 8:29 AM ET, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

UA 2439 · TPA → EWR

took off 6:19 AM ET · landed 8:29 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from TPA are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2439 · TPA → EWR

Odds over time