UA 2454 · EWR → BNA

took off 4:13 PM ET · landed 5:10 PM CT (scheduled 4:20 PM ET → 6:01 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BNA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2454 · EWR → BNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to BNA?