Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2464 LANDED 3:08 PM PT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

UA 2464 · SBP → SFO

took off 2:27 PM PT · landed 3:08 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBP (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2464 · SBP → SFO

Odds over time