Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2495 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:32 PM CT, ETA 9:58 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

UA 2495 · IAH → LGA

took off 5:32 PM CT · expected to land 9:58 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2495 · IAH → LGA

Odds over time