Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 254 LANDED 2:02 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

UA 254 · MCO → EWR

took off 12:01 PM ET · landed 2:02 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from MCO are often late

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 254 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time