UA 2607 · IAH → SFO

departs 6:07 PM CT · arrives 8:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,267 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.29 in

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2607 · IAH → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?