Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2611 LANDED 4:16 PM PT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

UA 2611 · IAH → SFO

took off 2:48 PM CT · landed 4:16 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2611 · IAH → SFO

Odds over time