Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2638 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 2638 · IAH → SEA

departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 7:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.21 in

SEA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2638 · IAH → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?