Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 264 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

UA 264 · BGR → DEN

departs 3:13 PM ET · arrives 6:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BGR (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 264 · BGR → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?