Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 265 LANDED 8:44 AM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

UA 265 · ORD → BUF

took off 6:38 AM CT · landed 8:44 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 265 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time