Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2801 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Today

UA 2801 · TPA → ORD

departs 7:42 PM ET · arrives 9:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2801 · TPA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?