Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2804 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 2804 · ORD → PWM

departs 11:00 AM CT · arrives 2:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PWM (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2804 · ORD → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?