Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2811 LANDED 11:19 AM PT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

UA 2811 · ORD → LAS

took off 10:03 AM CT · landed 11:19 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2811 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time