UA 2813 · ORD → IAH

departs 8:02 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2813 · ORD → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?