UA 2830 · SAN → SFO

took off 6:31 AM PT · expected to land 7:38 AM PT (scheduled 6:20 AM PT → 8:04 AM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2830 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?