UA 2840 · EWR → DFW

departs 6:09 PM ET · arrives 8:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DFW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2840 · EWR → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?