Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2845 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 2845 · MCO → DEN

departs 3:41 PM ET · arrives 6:09 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2845 · MCO → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?