Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2855 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 2855 · SFO → LAS

departs 1:50 PM PT · arrives 3:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2855 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?