Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2862SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
UA 2862 · IAD → SFO
departs 3:15 PM ET · arrives 6:02 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
13%chance · ±2 pts+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.