Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2865SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
UA 2865 · SBA → DEN
departs 5:00 AM PT · arrives 8:27 AM MT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
6%chance · ±0 pts−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.