Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 382 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 382 · IAH → SFO

departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 6:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.31 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 382 · IAH → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?