UA 3937 · IAD → SFO

took off 10:25 AM ET · landed 12:15 PM PT (scheduled 10:03 AM ET → 12:36 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ 10am departures from IAD are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.22 in

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3937 · IAD → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?