UA 3940 · TPA → MCO

took off 10:58 AM ET · landed 11:24 AM ET (scheduled 9:55 AM ET → 10:37 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 9am departures from TPA are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3940 · TPA → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?