Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 442 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 442 · AUS → SFO

departs 3:24 PM CT · arrives 5:13 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ 3pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.41 in

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 442 · AUS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?