UA 444 · SFO → SAN

departs 8:15 AM PT · arrives 9:59 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 444 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?