Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 469 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Today

UA 469 · SAT → IAH

departs 5:30 AM CT · arrives 6:37 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
48%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.07 in

IAH (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 469 · SAT → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?