UA 477 · DEN → ECP

took off 10:34 AM MT · expected to land 2:06 PM CT (scheduled 10:22 AM MT → 2:35 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ECP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at ECP that day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ECP (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 477 · DEN → ECP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ECP?