Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 47 LANDED 6:08 PM CT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

UA 47 · FRA → IAH

took off 2:21 PM CEST · landed 6:08 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −39 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FRA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 47 · FRA → IAH

Odds over time