UA 581 · BNA → SFO

took off 3:50 PM CT · expected to land 6:04 PM PT (scheduled 2:56 PM CT → 5:55 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
46%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 581 · BNA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?