Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 583 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 583 · MCO → EWR

departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 7:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 583 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?