Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 653 LANDED 8:33 AM PT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

UA 653 · SNA → SFO

took off 7:34 AM PT · landed 8:33 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ 7am departures from SNA are usually not late

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 653 · SNA → SFO

Odds over time