UA 776 · MCO → EWR

departs 5:26 PM ET · arrives 8:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

EWR (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 776 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?