UA 810 · MNL → SFO

departs 9:22 PM PST · arrives 7:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

97% chance · ±0 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

MNL (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 810 · MNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?