Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 821 LANDED 7:08 PM PT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3

UA 821 · HKG → LAX

took off · landed 7:08 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HKG

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

HKG (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 821 · HKG → LAX

Odds over time