UA 844 · GRU → ORD

departs 10:11 PM -03 · arrives 6:10 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

GRU (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 844 · GRU → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?