UA 852 · TPE → SFO

took off · landed 10:36 AM PT (scheduled 2:32 PM CST → 10:45 AM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 20h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −31 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPE

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

TPE (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 852 · TPE → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?