UA 916 · HNL → SFO

departs 1:29 AM HT · arrives 9:34 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 916 · HNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?